INSIGHT · GEOPOLITICS · TRADE
INSIGHT N° 56 · 2 September 2026
Belgium's renewed outreach to India shows a relationship moving beyond diamonds into trade, defence, clean energy, technology, and a larger India-EU strategic frame.
September 2nd 2026 marked the first-ever visit by a Belgian Prime Minister to India in nearly two decades; the last was Guy Verhofstadt in 2006. Bart de Wever, who was the long-time former mayor of Antwerp, arrived in New Delhi, accompanied by Belgium's Minister of Defence and Foreign Trade, Theo Francken. Their trip included a substantial business delegation, underscoring the commercial weight of this visit, which was not the only carefully thought-out aspect.
The timing follows the inaugural India-Belgium Strategic Dialogue, held in July 2026, coming after Princess Astrid's large-scale economic mission in 2025. The official visit also comes after the India-EU Free Trade Agreement negotiations concluded in January 2026; the formal signing of the deal is expected in December 2026, with Belgium potentially hosting the ceremony.
The significance of De Wever's trip is not limited to timing alone. It also reflects bilateral trade of approximately $13 billion in 2025-26, while Belgian FDI stock in India is around $4.2 billion. Both sides have set an explicit target of doubling trade within five years. Yet there is one sparkling stone that dominates this relationship: diamonds have historically accounted for nearly one-third of total trade between the two countries. Recent estimates for the gems and jewellery trade alone total $3.5 billion.
It is safe to say that, despite this visit's importance to the ceremonial celebration of historic ties, it is very much a pragmatic response from Belgium, one in which diamonds might be taking more of a spotlight. The contraction of Antwerp's diamond sector, western sanctions on Russian diamonds, and the rapid rise of lab-grown diamonds in India open the door to dialogue towards a more sparkling route. The main question is: what does this lead to, and how will India benefit from this?
The Old Engine Under Strain?
The India-Belgium diamond relationship has remained structurally intact for years. Antwerp functions as the world's premier trading, sorting, financing and certification hub, while India, particularly Surat, has become the global cutting and polishing powerhouse. This relationship extends to a well-established Indian diamond community in Antwerp, which continues to provide deep human and commercial roots that pump life into the Indo-Belgian corridor.
On paper, this is a successful relationship; however, the numbers tell a different story. Antwerp's diamond trade has contracted sharply in recent years, with its overall value falling significantly from earlier peaks; the rough-diamond segments were the first to bear the brunt.
But why the sudden hit? Western sanctions on Russian diamonds removed a substantial share of the traditional supply. In contrast, the rapid growth of lab-grown or synthetic diamonds and alternative trading hubs such as Dubai has intensified the competitive pressure on Antwerp.
This pressure has had a significant, yet careful impact on the PM's visit. The subtlety of it is evident when De Wever scheduled a visit to the Bharat Diamond Bourse in Mumbai and inaugurated an expanded HRD Antwerp grading laboratory, with a 30% capacity increase, a visible and symbolic reaffirmation that Belgium intends to remain relevant in Indian markets, despite changing volumes.
This intent has also been evident on the trade-policy front. The recently concluded India-EU FTA negotiations provide concrete tariff reductions across various aspects for the diamond sector. The duty on polished natural diamonds from Europe has fallen from 5.5% to 2.5%. One of the responses from Belgium indicates that they wish the rates to go lower, ideally to zero.
From the Indian side, interlocutors and the Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal have responded by hinting at the idea of deeper collaboration, one that moves beyond pure voluminous trade and more into design, co-creation, joint certifications and technology sharing. They also wish to create a more systemic partnership on lab-grown diamonds.
While all of this has potential benefits, what does the bottom line of a future partnership indicate? A deeper analytical shift shows that the old symbolic relationship is no longer automatic. India now has a decisive advantage in manufacturing scale, skilled labour, and cost structure. Antwerp has many residual strengths, such as its trust and independent certification, yet it requires active defence rather than passive inheritance.
As a result, Belgium is asking India to help keep Antwerp relevant in the field. From India's perspective, it is exploring the potential of this partnership, including whether it can evolve into a play centred on technology, branding, design capability, and supply-chain resilience.
The question, then, is if the old engine is under strain and whether the India-EU FTA can provide the larger framework to help rebuild it.
India-EU FTA: The Bigger Stage
Negotiations on the India-EU Free Trade Agreement concluded in January 2026, following nearly two decades of intermittent talks and marking it as the largest FTA either side has ever concluded. This substantial deal is set to eliminate or reduce tariffs on roughly 95-97% of goods traded. The EU estimates significant duty savings for European exporters and wishes to roughly double goods exports to India over time. Indian exporters, on the other hand, gain improved access to the large, high-value European market.
Belgium is in a crucial position, serving as a major European logistics hub and a historic gateway for the diamond trade. For these reasons, Belgium wants the FTA's tariff reductions and market-access gains to translate into tangible cargo and value flows through the Antwerp-Bruges port. PM De Wever has been public about making the port India's natural European gateway and intends to actively push for even greater tariff ambition, with the potential to ensure zero duties on polished diamonds.
While there is promising potential for Belgium, what is the broader European context on the FTA?
The broader European context views the FTA as a central pillar of the EU's Indo-Pacific and economic-security strategy. From the European perspective, the FTA has been designed to reduce over-dependence on single-source supply chains, especially those linked to China. Moreover, they wish to build more resilience and diversified trade corridors; in the process, raise India's status from a large emerging market to that of a systemic, strategic and economic partner.
Coming back to Belgium's perspective, the FTA is both an opportunity and an insurance policy. Without rapid and effective implementation, the negotiated gains, including the diamond tariff cut, will remain limited. On the other hand, a smooth and successful implementation will allow Belgium to position itself as a trusted European entry point for Indian exporters.
It is evident that the FTA is the foundation for a strong, successful partnership, but what else can India and Belgium build apart from diamonds?
Looking Beyond Diamonds
Apart from diamonds, defence cooperation is emerging as a concrete pillar of the expanded relationship. Multiple sources indicate that active discussions are underway regarding rocket systems, ammunition production in India, drones, joint training programs, and more. These steps align with India's Atmanirbhar Bharat drive, the country's push for self-reliance, especially in defence manufacturing. From a European perspective, their growing interest in co-production and technology-sharing partnerships will be addressed through this aspect of the discussions.
Following defence, clean energy and the green transition are other priorities. The discussions include green ammonia projects, collaboration on broader renewable energy and potential cooperation on critical minerals. This is particularly interesting for Belgium, as it offers an opportunity to export specialised technology and project expertise. It is also beneficial for India, as it provides access to European expertise and financial channels, which will help advance energy transition goals and diversify supply chains.
Apart from defence and clean energy, the agenda expands into semiconductors, chemicals, port, fintech and regulatory coordination. This reinforces Belgium's interests by establishing a fast-track investment mechanism for its firms and an upgraded bilateral business forum. Most of the areas discussed in the FTA reflect Belgium's strengths in high-value niches and India's demand for technology, capital and specialised services; together, they go beyond traditional commodity trade.
From an analytical perspective, it is evident that Belgium is deploying the classic "small-country leverage" model: it is combining high-value niche capabilities such as defence and technology with the institutional weight of the EU platform and the high-level political access that comes with it. This model allows a small economy like Belgium to project influence beyond its size by partnering with a much larger one.
India, on the other hand, is benefiting from European technology and expertise, a diversified set of defence suppliers, and a supportive voice at the heart of the EU, which can advocate for deeper, more pragmatic engagement.
So what does Belgium's renewed outreach to India really signal? The answer is simple; it reflects a shift in how Europe sees India.
De Wever's description of India as an "economic and technological power house" and a "major geopolitical factor" extends far beyond diplomatic courtesy. It is a recognition of a country whose influence now extends well beyond its region and a partner Europe is in dire need of, for economic resilience, strategic autonomy and diversification.
Yet it is crucial to note that the relationship between the two countries is not built on economics alone. Shared ideas regarding strategic autonomy and democratic values create political common ground, and historical ties, such as the long-standing Indian community in Antwerp, provide a foundation for deeper engagement.
The bigger shift is perhaps that India is no longer viewed as a market to be accessed or a manufacturing destination; it is becoming a partner Europe needs to engage with on its own terms. With this in mind, Belgium's outreach offers an early insight into what this new relationship could look like, which is why the question now is no longer whether India and Belgium have a relationship, but how far they can take it.
— PR —